4 bad Astros contracts they will regret having on their books this offseason
The Houston Astros have signed several suboptimal contracts.
The Houston Astros have picked up some interesting players to pitch this offseason.
There should be plenty of familiar faces on the 2024 roster, but this is a Houston team that could use upgrades and depth in the pitching staff as well as in the outfield.
Sure, it’s not an extensive shopping list, but it’s enough to keep Dana Brown busy this season.
But Astro’s salary situation is a problem.
Owner Jim Crane is not known as a free spender, and Houston is expected to exceed the trim tax by 2024.
That could change once a decision is made on contract options, but Houston likely won’t have a lot of money to work with, and unfortunately, they will have a lot.
Here are four bad contracts the Houston Astros will regret this season.
To be clear, these contracts weren’t mistakes at the time, but some were questionable.
This is just a trade, takes up valuable salary cap space right now, and is unlikely to give Houston the ROI it wants.
This is especially true in the offseason, when multiple needs must be addressed to remain competitive. open.
There’s also no guarantee these guys will be bad players in 2024.
Especially when you consider the natural talent some of them have.
Let’s take a look at four Astros contracts that could complicate the upcoming offseason.
Rafael Montero
When the Astros signed Rafael Montero to a three-year, $34.5 million contract after the 2022 season, he had a stellar season, posting a 2.37 ERA in 71 games. He missed the bat, had a decent strike rate and there was nothing peripheral to suggest that what he was doing was smoke and mirrors.
If he really is that guy, $11.5 million a year is not unreasonable at that level of quality when you look at the market.
But 2023 was a disaster for Montero.
In 68 appearances for the Astros last season, Montero had a 5.08 ERA and 4.46 FIP.
To do that, we had to have a good second half.
Part of that was a lack of balls in play, evidenced by his poor performance in FIP, but he still wasn’t close to the 2022 version.
In retrospect, this deal was always questionable given Montero’s track record.
He never pitched more than 44 games in a season until 2022, and prior to this magical season, he had a 5.18 ERA while playing for the Mets, Rangers and Mariners.
Rafael has always been a consistent underperformer in FIP.
This can be an indicator of a more serious problem than just “luck”.
This is a warning that it is not a good idea to buy a good seasonal item for a patient over 30 years old. Houston now owes him $11.5 million over the next two seasons, and that money would go a long way toward bolstering the rest of the roster.
Lance McCullers Jr.
Like extending Lance McCullers Jr.’s contract, it’s a tall order.
Balance was a good idea at the time of the 2021 contract.
Houston signed him to a five-year, $85 million deal.
He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the 2019 season.
The results have been tremendous when he’s been on the mound, and it’s clear that Lance wants to be in Houston.
Of course, the problem was his health.
Aside from Tommy John surgery, McCullers Jr. isn’t much of a breakout player these days.
He was never an innings player. His career record for innings pitched per mile in a season was 162.1 innings pitched in 2021, placing him in the top seven in Cy Young Award voting, and the next closest record was 128.1 innings pitched launched in 2018.
Lance’s work ethic has been an issue since 2021.
The results were still good on the mound as he had a 2.27 ERA in eight starts in 2022, but arm issues hampered those results.
He started eight games and will miss 2023 after undergoing surgery to repair a troublesome flexor tendon and remove a bone spur from his elbow.
McCullers Jr.?
Will it be enough to justify the $17 million he’ll get next year when he returns in 2024?
entirely.
But betting on him staying healthy and earning a big salary because he’s in demand might not be the smartest decision.
Jose Abreu
So the good news is that Jose Abreu appears to be back on his feet in time for the 2023 playoffs.
Abreu had a .945 OPS and four home runs in 11 games leading up to the 2023 playoffs and was a reason important for Houston advancing to the ALCS this year.
He was the same guy when Houston offered him a three-year deal before the season.
The problem is that the rest of the 2023 season didn’t inspire much confidence.
Abreu’s first season with the Astros was not without problems, he struggled most of the season and hit .237/.296/.383 with 18 home runs, the worst season of his career.
It wouldn’t be hard to find Astros fans trying to fire Abreu before Houston’s postseason starts.
See, the guy was injured and that explains why he didn’t have a good season.
Abreu also seems to be a nice guy who is loved in the clubhouse and is working hard to straighten up.
But he’ll always be 36 in June 2023, and an aging demographic with low power (he hit just 15 home runs in 2022) is a risky demographic.
Houston is betting, and now hoping, that the $19.5 million a year they will pay Jose over the next two seasons won’t come back when they try to extend him or trade him in the offseason.
Justin Verlander
It is not easy to analyze this large-scale and problematic agreement. When Houston re-signed Justin Verlander at the trade deadline, it was, and still is, a surprisingly aggressive move from Dana Brown, who publicly dismissed his high valuation on the trade market.
Still, with injuries to the Astros’ rotation and high rankings, it was nice to see Brown step up to give the team some real momentum.
Plus, Verlander gave the Astros what they needed.
He posted a 3.31 ERA in 11 starts for the Astros at the trade deadline, which is nothing to sneeze at.
Verlander also performed well in the postseason, posting a 2.95 ERA in three starts.
No problem this time either.
The problem is that Verlander isn’t the pitcher he was and will be 41 next season.
His assets have already dropped significantly, and at best he makes over $43 million next season and already has a $35 million option secured for 2025.
It helped a bit that the Mets spent a significant amount of money in a trade to bring him back, but that’s a lot of money tied up for a guy in the twilight of his career.
Does Verlander still have a good season with him?
may be. However, a senior may be too tied down, and those resources are probably better spent on someone else, or even several people. Hindsight is 20/20, but the next few years may be difficult.
