Maple Leafs Ilya Samsonov’s future in Toronto seems unclear

The 2022-2023 season has been a breakout campaign for Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov. When the Washington Capitals allowed him to enter free agency, the 2015 first-round pick stepped up in a change of scenery, earning the Maple Leafs goalie job. In 42 games, the 26-year-old posted a 27-10-5 record, a .919 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.33 goals-against average (GAA). That was enough to land a nice one-year, $3.55 million deal in arbitration.
After a strong first season with the Maple Leafs, Samsonov was expected to continue his improvement in 2023-24. So far in this young season, however, the opposite has happened, as Samsonov has worked hard. Therefore, it is already fair to doubt whether Samsonov is part of the Maple Leafs’ long-term plan. Now let’s discuss why.
A look at Samsonov’s nightmare for the 2023-24 season

Samsonov’s 2023-24 season honestly couldn’t have gotten off to a much worse start. In seven games with the Maple Leafs so far, he has a record of 2-1-2 with a .855 SV% and a 4.11 GAA. It showed that he has hit from the first inning twice in his last four starts, both against the Tampa Bay Lightning. That includes the Maple Leafs’ last game on Nov. 6, where he scored four goals on 12 shots before being pulled and wearing a mask in anger.
Aside from those two strikes, most of his other performances weren’t too strong. He posted at least a .900 SV% in two of his seven games. In other starts, he had a .792 SV% (Montreal Canadiens), .875 SV% (Minnesota Wild), .250 SV% (Lightning), .875 SV% (Nashville Predators) and .667 SV% (Lightning). . It’s just not good enough.
In response to Samsonov’s game, Joseph Woll gained real weight to be the club’s starting netminder. It makes sense in the end, as he has been excellent with the Maple Leafs this season, posting a 4-3-0 record, .930 SV% and 2.30 GAA. Needless to say, he was a much better goalkeeper. What the Maple Leafs could do with Samsonov

Given that Samsonov could be an unrestricted free agent (UFA) after this season, it’s entirely possible that the Maple Leafs will let him walk. In fact, it’s far more likely than not that they will if he doesn’t find last season’s form quickly. If his game doesn’t significantly improve as the season progresses, the Maple Leafs will have no choice but to find an upgrade in the offseason, either through trade or free agency.

However, it is also possible that the Maple Leafs could move Samsonov during the season if his game continues to be bad. At the trade deadline, the Maple Leafs will likely look to add to their roster, and moving on from Samsonov’s $3.55 million cap hit would give them more freedom to do so. However, even with his continued struggles, he remains a player heading into the final season of his contract. Sellers would have no problem adding him if it meant adding a little more to a potential deal to clear his contract.
There are clear signs early on that Samsonov’s future with the Maple Leafs is in jeopardy. His game must be elevated to have any chance of avoiding either of those two fates.
Samsonov still has the potential to bounce back

While Samsonov’s poor play is starting to make his future at the club less tangible, he still has plenty of time to turn things around. The Maple Leafs still have 70 games to play this season, making their 2023-24 campaign a very small sample size. Looking at how well he performed last season, we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of him coming back. He still managed to form a strong 1A/1B tandem with Woll.
We will now have to wait and see how well Samsonov does from here. However, if his rough start returns to normal over the next few months, don’t be surprised if we don’t see him in the blue and white right after the next calendar year.