Toto Wolff wrong about Red Bull as Lewis Hamilton’s F1 fate is painfully clear

Red Bull ended the 2023 F1 season with twice as many points as any other team, with Max Verstappen alone ahead of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell.

Toto if you like. Lewis Hamilton and George Russell look more likely to climb the world’s biggest mountain next season than to topple Max Verstappen. At the end of the day, these are two very good athletes at the top of their game. If you give Russell and Hamilton climbing gear and sherpas, you can’t guarantee they’ll reach the highest peak in the world. It would be much braver to bet on Mercedes to beat Red Bull next year. This is not to say that we question the ability and judgment of those who make important decisions at Brackley. Many of the ghosts of the team’s eight-year constructors’ title dynasty, from 2014 to 2021, still haunt the halls of Mercedes. F1 headquarters. However, there are many factors working against them. This is especially true for competitive forces. Red Bull made the fast car and Verstappen was lethal throughout 2023. They didn’t defend Sergio Perez at all and still won both titles. The performance gap is still large. As Hamilton pointed out after finishing ninth in Sunday’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, this comes after Red Bull went months without any development on the RB19 to focus solely on the next race car. A significant lead puts Red Bull at the top of the 2024 season. It’s in a class of its own. In earlier times, teams chasing leaders threw money at the problem. Mercedes has never been short of cash and last month announced a huge profit for the 2022 season, despite Red Bull winning that season. But they can’t do that anymore. The budget cap is good for putting all 10 teams on equal financial footing, but it’s very restrictive for teams that need a lot of car development. Mercedes is still restricted by wind tunnel testing time limits and will run less than the Italian and slightly more than Red Bull in 2024 as it narrowly beat Ferrari in the championship to finish second.

Lack of talent is not the problem. Wolff has a lot to do on and off the track. But all the factors mean his analogy of climbing Mount Everest does not match the scale of the task facing his team over the next 12 months.