JUST-IN: Hamilton’s hopes of winning an eighth world title have suffered a blow

F1 2024 supercomputer snubs Lewis Hamilton as Max Verstappen’s main title rival named

Max Verstappen was peerless in 2023 with the likes of Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris unable to touch him – but who will be his closest rival in the coming campaign

Lewis Hamilton rarely came close to beating Max Verstappen in 2023 – but, to be fair, few others did either.

Sergio Perez and Carlos Sainz were the only drivers other than the Dutchman to win a race last year. And they did so just three times between them as Verstappen smashed records left, right and centre.

Hamilton finished the season as the top driver of all those not behind the wheel of an RB19. But he failed to win a race for the second campaign in a row, with Mercedes still some way behind Red Bull in terms of race pace.

And by the end of the season they seemed not to even be the team closest to the champions. McLaren made extraordinary progress on their car over the course of the year and, in the second half of the campaign, both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were regular podium contenders.

Ferrari were getting the odd look in as well, Sainz winning in Singapore and Charles Leclerc taking several pole positions. And even though Aston Martin had fallen away, Fernando Alonso still managed two podiums after the summer break.

All of the above any maybe a few more will have dreams of toppling Verstappen in 2024. But it will be no mean feat, with Red Bull’s advantage baked in for the upcoming campaign as a result of their historic dominance last term.

Based on numerical calculations, analysis of previous Formula 1 patterns, and current outcomes, the OLBG supercomputer leans towards concurring. Verstappen now has a 65 percent probability of successfully defending his title in 2024; by comparison, the next-highest percentage for any of his competitors is only 10 percent.

Interestingly, though Hamilton is not that person who the supercomputer believes has the best chance of ending the Red Bull racer’s title streak. Instead, it is Norris who has been named as the most likely rival to Verstappen.

Hamilton is predicted to have the second-best chance of anyone other than the Dutchman to taste title glory in 2024. However, the seven-time world champion has been given just a six percent chance of securing his eighth crown.

The next in line are Leclerc, Piastri, and George Russell, Hamilton’s teammate, but their chances of taking home the championship this year are only 4% combined. Perez’s odds are only three percent even if he is the driver of the other Red Bull. The odds of Alonso defeating Verstappen to victory are two percent, compared to one percent or less for everyone else.