Update on Atlanta Braves trade for Randy Arozarena

There are rumors that Tampa Bay will trade some players in the offseason.
Could Atlanta take advantage of this and sign a full-time left fielder?
The Atlanta Braves are looking to restock their pitching staff this season as they look to make another World Series appearance in 2024.
But some questions remain about what he will do in left field.

Eddie Rosario hasn’t had a bad season, hitting .255 with 21 home runs and also being an everyday starter against right-handed hitters.
However, platoon mate Kevin Piller is planning a move and said Rosario’s contract only includes a 2024 club option worth $9 million.

Can Atlanta improve the Tampa Bay Rays by trading starting pitcher Randy Arozarena?
Why would Tampa Bay trade Arozarena?

On the face of it, it doesn’t make sense for Tampa Bay to trade Arozarena.
The 2021 American League Rookie of the Year is coming off his second straight 20-homer season, hitting .254 with a .789 OPS in 151 games.
He primarily played left tackle, made his first All-Star team this year and enters his first year of arbitration this winter with three years of team control.
But there is a problem.
We will proceed to arbitration.

Tampa Bay has 16 arbitration-eligible players this winter, and it would cost more than $45 million to keep all 16 players, according to MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration projections.
Tampa Bay’s total annual salary last year was $79 million, and if they retain all of these players, the projected annual salary will be $130 million.

Last week, we discussed a possible trade for Atlanta’s Tyler Glasnow, who is in the final year of contract control.
He is owed $25 million in 2024, and the move would open up huge salary cap space next year.
But if he stays, Tampa Bay will have to make another move.
With just four races projected to earn over $3 million in arbitration, it’s clear what the plan is.
Some of that group will, including outfielder Isaac Paredes, right-handers Aaron Civale and Arozarena and slugger Harold Ramirez.
I have to leave town.
Civale was acquired last season at the expense of Kyle Manzardo, so let’s assume they keep him.
Paredes hit .250 with 31 home runs at three shortstop positions in 2023, all at age 24.
Let’s assume it stays.

Arozarena and Ramirez remain.
Ramirez hit .313 but started 99 of 122 games as a designated hitter, scoring sporadically at the corners and at first base.
And Arozarena is the most expensive of the group.
How much was Randy Arozarena worth?

There are two aspects to this: arbitrage costs and acquisition costs.
MLBTR projected Arozarena to make $9 million this season in his first year of arbitration, which coincidentally is the exact same amount as Rosario’s club option, so he’s out of the money.

The acquisition cost is the hardest part.
Obtaining Arozarena through trade takes effort and can be harmful. Tampa Bay has one of the top five farm systems in baseball and is loaded with talent, especially for young position players.
Plus, the Rays will always have a 40-man roster in the fall and will likely have to move a handful of prospects in order to lose relatively nothing in the Rule 5 draft.

So if you want Arozarena, pitching is a must. Young, controlled pitch.
They don’t want Von Grissom.
They include Isaac Paredes, Curtis Mead, Osleivis Basabe and… No, they want young release. And do you want a reliable and versatile player like Arozarena?
Is there anyone who has played 600 games in each of the last three seasons and has at least 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and 120+ WRC in each of those three seasons?
(Oh, and he doesn’t have a platoon.
He struck out exactly 254 batters in 2023 against both left-handed and right-handed batters.) It must be a well-controlled field.

Looking at future rankings, the conversation starts with either the no.
5 RHP Owen Murphy, either with #3 Spencer Schwelenbach.
They could find an MLB-ready starting pitcher like Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd as the second part of the trade.
Because they had so many rotation injuries that they had to close the inning.
, but the second track could be another prospect up to R5. Maybe as high as OF Luis Guanipa (#7).
He’s still a few years away from Rule 5 eligibility, but someone in his mid-teens, Giancarlos Lara (#14), is also a possibility.
So how likely is this to happen?

Honestly, it’s very low.
Such players are usually not traded very often.

But when you do that, it’s about the money.
I’m thinking of a Marcell Ozuna trade between Miami and St. Louis.
When Miami got Sandy Alcantara and Zach Gallen for Ozuna (the Jazz later traded Gallen for Chisholm).

If Atlanta does this, I hope this trade doesn’t go like Oz or the trade in St. Louis.
what do you think?
Would you do this deal with Randy Arozarena?