What Scotland needs to win its match against South Africa and Ireland and defeat Tonga in order to advance.

In one of the tournament’s games on Saturday night at the Stade de France, Ireland defeated the defending champions South Africa 13-8, and on Sunday afternoon in Nice, Scotland recorded their first victory of the competition with a commanding 45-17 triumph over Tonga. Romania and Tonga are still mathematically eligible, but in reality, a three-way battle is going on between the Scots, Irish, and Springboks for the top two spots in the group and a spot in the quarterfinals.

Ireland is currently in first place with 14 points after winning each of their three games. They now have two weeks off prior to their match against Scotland on Saturday, October 7 in Paris.
South Africa is currently in second place with ten points after losing to the Irish in the French capital.
They still have one game left, which will be against Tonga on Sunday, October 1 in Marseille.
Nevertheless, the Scots still have two games left to play, taking on Romania in Lille on Saturday, September 30, and the Irish the following week.
The current point total for Gregor Townsend’s team is five.

Scotland will undoubtedly need to win their final two games in order to qualify.
The Tongans are expected to lose to South Africa, who have already soundly defeated them in their first two games.
One bonus-point victory and one bonus-point loss could be sufficient to guarantee Scotland’s place in the round of eight should the Springboks falter, which would be one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.

But if South Africa wins their final game and earns a bonus point to finish with 15 points, which is a very likely scenario, then Scotland must defeat Romania and score four tries in the process to advance to ten points.
They would then be four points behind the Irish.
In this case, Scotland would need to defeat Ireland by eight points or more, or by scoring four or more tries to secure a bonus point win while ensuring Ireland failed to pick up two losing bonus points, to avoid a glorious failure scenario in which Scotland could take 15 points from a section containing the world’s top two ranked teams but still fail to qualify for the knockout stages.
If your opponent scores four or more tries while you score at least four, you will receive bonus points.
In one game, a team is allowed to earn two bonus points.

Additionally, Scotland, Ireland, and South Africa could all finish with 14 or 15 points.
In that case, points difference would be used, then tries scored.

Rugby World Cup Pool B table

1 Ireland – 14pts, +122, played 3

2 South Africa – 10pts, +86, played 3

3 Scotland – 5pts, +13, played 2

4 Tonga – 0pts, -43, played 2

5 Romania – 0pts, -150, played 2